Anticipated job growth in the early part of this year is supported by an upswing in The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI).
The ETI for the U.S. rose to 113.15 in December, a slight improvement from the 112.48 recorded in November.
Senior economist Selcuk Eren at The Conference Board noted that this modest uptick signals a continuation of employment growth in the early months of 2024. Despite a gradual decline since its peak in March 2022, the index remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Eren expressed, “This suggests ongoing job additions in early 2024, albeit at a slower pace. We anticipate a brief and mild recession beginning in H1 2024 with negative payroll figures in the latter part of the year.”
The overall Net Employment Outlook of employers stands at 26%, a three percent increase year-over-year
The December increase in the index is attributed to positive contributions from four out of the eight leading indicators of employment. These indicators encompass the percentage of respondents finding “Jobs Hard to Get,” initial claims for unemployment insurance, real manufacturing, and job openings. This aligns with recent findings indicating that employers plan to continue hiring early in the year amid talent shortages.
According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for 2024, the overall Net Employment Outlook of employers stands at 26%, a three percent increase year-over-year but a four percent decrease from the previous quarter.
Jonas Prising, Chairman, and CEO of ManpowerGroup stated, “While employer hiring confidence has slightly moderated due to global economic concerns, labour markets remain tight, and the demand for skilled talent persists across multiple sectors.” However, the report forecasts measured hiring in the first quarter of 2024, with employers encountering obstacles from persistent talent shortages.
The survey indicates that the strongest hiring plans are in North America, with a 34% outlook. Other regions report hiring plans as follows: Asia Pacific (30%), South and Central Americas (28%), and Europe, Middle East, and Africa (23%). Notably, India and the Netherlands have the strongest hiring plans, both at 37%, while Hungary (10%), Japan (10%), Czech Republic (8%), and Argentina (2%) record the weakest outlooks.
