The UK stands out among G8 countries due to its political stability, with the government expected to remain in power for the next five years. As a result, 2024 could be a pivotal year for UK banking, driven by recent deregulation reforms, stable interest rates, divestment of private equity firms as funds near their five-year mark post-pandemic and the
Government’s plan to unlock £75 million, potentially boosting savings by £11,000 per person. In particular, London is forecast to see a 2% rise in banking vacancies, increasing from 46% to 48%, whereas the rest of England and Wales face a 12% decline according to the latest UK labour market trends report by leading professional recruiter Morgan McKinleyand market data analysts, Vacancysoft.
Since 2022, Risk and Compliance has consistently been the most in-demand area in banking recruitment, and this trend is expected to continue in 2024, with 4,559 vacancies representing 15% of all sector roles, despite a 20% decrease in vacancies. This decline is likely due to increased automation of risk analysis through AI, as many banks adopt new technologies like blockchain for transactions.
IT Development & Engineering roles are expected to grow by 9%, reaching nearly 4,000 vacancies as banks integrate these innovations. In contrast, IT management vacancies have fallen by 6%. Overall, the rise in technology driven roles stands in contrast to the 22% decline in commercial banking vacancies, reflecting the sector’s evolving needs.
Greater London is projected to retain the largest share of banking vacancies in 2024, with an estimated 48%, or 14,964 total vacancies, nearly recovering to 2022 levels after a 3% decline from 2022 to 2023. Edinburgh is expected to hold second place with 1,532 vacancies, although both Edinburgh and Glasgow are projected to see significant drops of 20% and 28%., As a result, Scotland’s share of vacancies is likely to fall from 11% to 9%.
In contrast, Northern Ireland and the Southwest are the only regions expected to see growth, with Northern Ireland up 10% and the Southwest 9%. However, Manchester is set for the sharpest decline, dropping by %.
In 2024, investment-focused banks are expected to see significant vacancy growth. Goldman Sachs is forecasted to have an 89% increase, reaching nearly 600 positions, following the opening of its Birmingham branch. Bank of America is expected to lead with a 119% surge, bringing the total to approximately 344 jobs, while JP Morgan Chase will see an 8% rise, with vacancies reaching 2,714.
In contrast, retail-focused banks like NatWest Group and Nationwide Building Society are predicted to face steep declines, with vacancies dropping by 49% and 48%, respectively. However, Santander stands out, with a 3% increase, due to recent structural changes.
Ross Sailes, Associate Director, Morgan McKinley said: “Recent data has shown that wage inflation is finally subsiding, theoretically paving the way for a number of rate cuts over the coming year. This shift could not only positively impact consumer sentiment but also give a welcome boost to bank balance sheets as their sizable bond portfolios increase in value. Should this materialise, we could see increased investment in projects, expansion plans and emerging technologies such as automation and AI – developments that would significantly benefit the recruitment market.”
The full report on Banking 2024 by Morgan McKinley and Vacancysoft can be found here.
