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UK employment market update – January 2025

The January 2025 employment market data was universally awful with the only positive being a modest increase in wage growth. Hopefully the best that can be said is that things will pick up from here! But I wouldn't bet on it just yet.

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The UK employment rate dropped to 75.5%, while unemployment edged up to 4.4%, reflecting pressures on workforce participation.
UK vacancies hit a three-year low of 812,000, indicating cautious hiring amid economic uncertainties.
Real wage growth offers businesses a chance to enhance talent attraction through competitive pay and flexibility.

Employment and unemployment rates

The UK employment rate 75.5% for the period between September and November 2024, a slight decline of 0.2% against the previous quarter.  Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose marginally to 4.4%, up from 4.3%.

Economic inactivity edged higher, reaching 20.8%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous period.

The redundancy rate also reached a five-month high this month, at 3.8%, reflecting the continued pressure on employers to manage workforce costs in a challenging economic environment.

Vacancy data

Vacancy numbers in the UK have continued to decline, with an estimated 812,000 vacancies recorded between October and December 2024. This marks a drop of 24,000 from the previous quarter and represents the lowest vacancy level in over three years.

Number of vacancies in the UK, seasonally adjusted, October to December 2005, to October to December 2024.

Source: ONS Vacancy Survey

January marks the 30th consecutive monthly decline in UK vacancies, highlighting the ongoing impact of more cautious hiring practices across sectors. Despite the slowdown in hiring activity, average weekly earnings rose by 5.6% year-on-year, reaching a six-month high. With inflation subdued, this has translated into real-terms wage growth, offering a degree of respite for households facing cost-of-living pressures.

Global market news

  • US trends: US markets remain resilient, supported by strong performances in the technology sector and resilient economic data.
  • Europe’s vacancy trends: Job vacancy rates in Q3 2024 were 2.5% in Europe, and 2.3% across the EU, with The Netherlands (4.3%) and Belgium (4.2%) reporting the highest vacancy rates across the region.  
  • APAC employment trends: Youth unemployment rates are a growing challenge, with one in four young people not in employment, education, or training (NEET), highlighting a need for better alignment between education and labour market demands.

Whilst hiring levels may not be especially buoyant, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a full agenda for HR and Talent Leaders.  

At TALiNT Partners we have identified 8 key areas of strategic focus for HR and TA leaders this year:

  1. The impact and uses of AI for TA
  2. The move to Hiring for skills and total talent management
  3. Improving Workforce planning and demand levels
  4. Building agile and resilient resourcing capability
  5. The evolution of EVP and CVP
  6. The impact of new legislation and changing legal requirements
  7. The evolution of the DE&I agenda
  8. Developing the role of Talent Advisory, shift from transactional to strategic function

 

Clearly the UK and Eurozone continue to struggle in terms of job vacancy growth. With the UK government trying to take a more aggressive approach to growth and a new administration in the US promising a huge economic stimulus combined with a willingness to use tariffs as a policy tool, it’s impossible to tell which way the market will move in the next few months.  

Two areas however stand out: the evolution of AI from a tactical to a strategic tool for employers’ talent challenges continues apace, as does the move towards becoming a skills-based-organisation.  

This is a topic which will be explored in some detail at our Future of Talent conference on March 20th in London.
More information can be found here.

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